Crypto Regulatory Clarity Seen Slipping to 2027-2029 Timeframe

Clear US rules for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum appear increasingly delayed, as a leading market structure bill may not pass until 2027 and could take effect in 2029, TD Cowen reports.

Political maneuvering on Capitol Hill is the primary driver for the extended timeline. Jaret Seiberg and his team suggest Democrats have limited motivation to rush, particularly with the potential to reshape the House majority in the 2026 elections.

“Election outcomes are always uncertain, which is why Democrats may cut a deal,” Seiberg observed. “That could happen quickly, as staff have been working on the technical language for months.”

Still, the analysis points to a delayed resolution as perhaps the most viable path. “Time favors enactment as the problems disappear if the bill passes in 2027 and takes effect in 2029. Crypto would need to accept that the presidential election could impact the final rules, and Democrats would need to accept that the conflict provision will not apply to Trump.”

A specific conflict-of-interest provision remains a likely dealbreaker. Language restricting former President Donald Trump and other officials from the crypto sector would be a “nonstarter” without a future effective date, Seiberg concluded.