Fed Decision Could Unlock Bitcoin Rally Toward $112,000: Analysis

Bitcoin’s near-term fate may be influenced by the Federal Reserve’s policy statement today, with CryptoQuant suggesting a dovish shift could ignite a rally toward $112,000. The firm cautions that this ambitious target is only achievable if Bitcoin can break through two major resistance walls.

“Bitcoin would have to clear $99,000 and $102,000 levels first,” emphasized CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno. He labeled these thresholds as critical for sustaining bullish momentum.

A positive outcome from the Fed, according to Moreno, hinges on the combination of a rate cut and reassuring projections about future policy and inflation. Meeting these criteria might push Bitcoin to test $99,000, where the rally’s strength will be tested by potential seller activity.

CryptoQuant’s report specifies that the $99,000 level corresponds to the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price, a typical resistance area. The next significant obstacles are found at $102,000, based on the one-year moving average, and finally at the $112,000 Trader On-chain Realized Price.

The market consensus points to a rate reduction this afternoon, yet the primary source of uncertainty remains the Fed’s forecast for the policy path in 2026, which will shape broader financial market sentiment.